Intra-African trade: a marked increase of 1% in the first half of 2024 (WTO)

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[ACCI-CAVIE] On 10 October 2024, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) revealed its new projections for world trade growth. While African export forecasts have been revised downwards, one encouraging sign is the rise of intra-regional trade on the continent.

In the first half of 2024, the share of intra-African trade rose from 11% to 12% of the continent’s total trade, according to WTO economist Coleman Nee. This increase comes despite a 5% contraction in African imports over the same period, illustrating a positive trend within the continent.

This increase, albeit modest, comes against the backdrop of the gradual implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a key project to boost intra-African trade. Coleman Nee pointed out that ‘even if trade growth remains limited in volume terms, initial estimates show an increase in the share of intra-African trade. This development should reinforce the continent’s economic diversification efforts and mitigate the impact of external shocks.’

However, the WTO has revised its outlook for the continent’s overall trade. African exports are expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, compared with an initial forecast of 5.3%, while imports will increase by only 1% instead of the 4.4% expected. For 2025, the WTO forecasts a moderate rise in exports (+2.2%) and imports (+1.1%). These revisions are justified by a re-evaluation of trade statistics and a weakening of imports from Europe, Africa’s major trading partner.

At the same time, the WTO expects African GDP to grow by 3.2% in 2024, adjusted for market exchange rates. On a global scale, the organisation is forecasting trade growth of 2.7% for 2024, slightly higher than previous estimates, while lowering the forecast for 2025 to 3%.

Ralph Ossa, the WTO’s chief economist, also highlighted a more favourable trend in the services sector. ‘World trade in commercial services increased by 8% in value in US dollars in the first quarter of 2024 compared to last year’, he said, indicating that this trend should continue in the second quarter.

The editorial team