[ACCI-CAVIE] Twenty African countries took their agricultural investment projects to Rome in October, hoping to attract international investors. But behind the billions announced, a bigger question remains: who will actually capture the value?
The Competition Extends Beyond Agricultural Production
The projects presented at the Hand-in-Hand Investment Forum, held from 13 to 16 October 2026, cover rice, maize, cassava and soybeans, alongside higher-value commodities such as coffee, cocoa, cashew, avocado and honey. Livestock, fisheries, irrigation, mechanisation and agro-processing also feature prominently. This diversity reveals that African countries are competing for more than agricultural financing. They are seeking positions across the infrastructure, processing and distribution networks that determine who captures the greatest value from agricultural production.
Ghana illustrates the scale of these ambitions with a proposed investment portfolio worth USD 1.2 billion, covering cassava and soybean production, poultry, and soybean and rice processing. The projects are expected to create more than 250,000 jobs. Across the entire forum, 38 countries presented investment opportunities totalling USD 20.16 billion. However, these figures represent proposed investments, not capital already secured. The distinction is essential: announcing an investment ambition is one thing; demonstrating its financial viability and obtaining the necessary commitments is another.
Information Quality Becomes a Competitive Advantage
Agricultural potential alone does not determine where capital flows. Investors must assess market demand, production costs, land tenure, infrastructure, climate exposure, regulatory conditions and expected returns. Weaknesses in any of these areas can undermine an otherwise promising project. The competitive advantage increasingly belongs to countries and project developers capable of producing reliable data, demonstrating realistic profitability and identifying risks before financing decisions are made.
The FAO’s Hand-in-Hand Initiative addresses this challenge through geospatial analysis, economic modelling and technical assessments designed to identify promising territories and prepare investment cases. Since 2022, the initiative has supported 387 investment cases worldwide, representing USD 47.26 billion in potential investments. Of this amount, USD 7.88 billion in financing has been committed or remains under negotiation. These figures demonstrate the importance of project preparation, while highlighting the distance that can remain between an investment proposal and its implementation.
Attracting Capital Does Not Guarantee Control Over Value
Even when financing is secured, the economic benefits of agricultural investment are not automatically retained locally. Increased production can coexist with limited domestic processing, dependence on imported equipment and inputs, and weak control over distribution channels. African economies may therefore expand their agricultural output without acquiring a stronger position in the industries that generate the greatest added value. The strategic question is not simply how much capital a project attracts, but which productive capabilities and market positions it helps develop on the continent.
Governments and businesses must consequently examine the distribution of benefits within each investment project: local processing capacity, skilled employment, technology transfer, supplier development and access to regional markets. They must also identify who controls financing, logistics, storage and commercial outlets. These factors determine whether an investment strengthens an entire value chain or merely expands one segment while leaving the most profitable activities elsewhere. Measuring agricultural investment by its announced financial volume alone can therefore produce a misleading picture of its contribution to economic sovereignty.
From Competitive Intelligence to the Protection of African Interests
For African decision-makers, preparing an attractive investment proposal also requires understanding the competitive environment in which it will be presented. Which countries are targeting the same investors? Which companies control essential inputs, processing facilities and distribution networks? What regulatory, climatic or logistical developments could alter a project’s profitability? Answering these questions requires more than conventional market research. It calls for continuous monitoring, competitive analysis, partner assessment and the ability to anticipate changes that could affect investment decisions.
This is where the African Center for Competitive Intelligence (CAVIE) brings operational value. Through strategic monitoring, competitive intelligence, market studies, due diligence and risk analysis, the Centre helps public and private decision-makers assess their environments, identify competitive threats and secure their economic interests. With a network spanning 38 countries and experience supporting more than 1,000 businesses, CAVIE has developed activities that address the information and decision-making challenges shaping African competitiveness. Its contribution is not to promise access to capital, but to help decision-makers identify the conditions under which investments can become viable, competitive and sustainable.
Africa’s agricultural investment competition will not be decided by the countries presenting the largest portfolios, but by those capable of converting opportunities into lasting economic positions. Access to capital matters, but control over technology, processing, logistics and markets ultimately determines who captures the value. For African governments and businesses, the challenge is therefore to move beyond attracting investment and develop the intelligence needed to negotiate stronger positions within global and regional value chains.
The Editorial Staff